Romania is Racing to its Downfall — but it’s Not Too Late

There are many reasons for this political tsunami. For decades, the majority of Romanian society has believed that the country is heading in the wrong direction, that the political class is incapable of creating a democratic system, a true rule of law, and prosperity; it is no coincidence that since the fall of communism, millions have left to go abroad to seek their fortunes. There is enormous disillusionment with the parties that are otherwise pro-European, which was exacerbated by the austerity measures implemented last December to reduce the budget deficit, and the fact that the government led by Marcel Ciolacu is currently unable to stop the growth of the deficit, so further unpopular steps such as VAT and tax increases are expected in the near future. Of course, Simion's advance is also due to the frustration caused by the annulment of the results of the presidential election last November, as the authorities did not explain beyond any doubt that this move was necessary, which is why many feel that no matter where their vote goes, the „system” will push aside the will of the people and bestow the winner it prefers.

The reason for the defeat of Crin Antonescu – who, for nearly a decade, was completely retired from political life and was only „reactivated” last December – and the entire coalition, is primarily to be found in the high level of dissatisfaction with the mainstream parties in government. The majority of people saw the 65-year-old Antonescu as a politician with an „expired warranty”; a man ingrained in the system and the political formations that have basically been in power continuously for 35 years with few exceptions. They saw him as a man unable to renew or reform the country. Last but not least, the perception of the government was also damaged by the fact that the US authorities announced just two days before the presidential election on May 4 that they would exclude Romania from the visa-free program, which the Biden administration had included the country in January this year.

The clear favorite in the decisive round on May 18 is Simion – he would, however, isolate the country. Since the election data shows that the extreme nationalist politician managed to receive a significant number of Hungarian votes, I will provide an introduction of his past to our readers. Years ago, as a football-fan-leader, he participated in many riots, and as an activist, he openly advocated for the unification of the Republic of Moldova and Romania. For this he was banned from the former Soviet republic, which he still cannot enter. He has also advocated for withdrawing all support from Ukraine – another country he is banned from entering. (Former Moldovan Defense Minister Anatol Șalaru claims that Simion met with agents of the Russian secret service, the FSB, in Chișinău years ago. On that note: it would be very good to know what he was doing in Vienna on that Monday, the very day after the election...).

On several occasions, he was the protagonist of violent demonstrations – just remember the vandalism of the Hungarian military cemetery in Úzvölgy (Valea Uzului) – and aggressive acts against his political opponents, even in the Bucharest legislature. He has essentially been the one to bring aggressive-roadside-style-politics into Romania’s parliament: he almost beat up the former energy minister on the podium, and threatened his former party colleague Diana Șoșoaca: „I’m going to rape you, you sow!” One of the cornerstones of his program is economic nationalism: he intends to significantly increase the amount of state-owned companies that were privatized in the 35 years since the 1989 fall of communism. His primary focus is on energy companies, including Romania’s largest commercial enterprise, the oil company OMV Petrom.

Although Simion claims to have developed good relations with the Trump administration, his potential victory would not improve the strategic partnership between the United States and Romania, but at the same time would significantly set back Bucharest's relationship with the European Union. On top of this, there would be a much higher chance his party, AUR (Alliance for the Union of Romanians) would come into power. To succinctly summarize the consequences of Simion's presidency: a complete disaster.

The biggest surprise of the first round was that current Mayor of Bucharest Nicușor Dan, who had no major party support, came in second place in the vote and thus got the right to participate in the second round. He managed to get ahead of Crin Antonescu, who not only enjoyed significant political support as the candidate for president of the three-party government coalition, but also had well-oiled party apparatuses campaigning for him. Dan, a critic of the system and harsh critic of the coalition, will have a very difficult time facing Simion, who currently boasts twice as much support.

Although many analysts believe that the majority of Romanian voters are pro-European, and that the far-right sovereignist candidate and his camp will not be able to gain more than 40 percent of the vote, the mayor of Bucharest will have to very quickly win over the supporters of parties with which he has been fighting a fierce political battle until now. Above all, he is not only firmly rejected by supporters of the ruling Social Democrats (PSD) (which is why some of them will either cast their ballot for Simion or simply stay away from the polls), but also he is not an indisputable champion among liberals.

However, it is a very bad sign that the left-wing party is not taking a stand for the only democratic, decent option at the moment, Nicușor Dan. Rather, they are leaving the decision up to the conscience of their supporters, essentially passing the buck. With this strategy, PSD is laying the groundwork for a joint government with the AUR, if Simion is the front-runner in two weeks.

To stand a chance on May 18, Mayor Dan will certainly have to negotiate with the leaders of the disintegrating coalition. He still needs to win over more than two million additional voters to his side over the next two weeks – and even that may not be enough, because Georgescu’s „hologram”, Simion, will probably boost his numbers in the meantime. Though we have witnessed spectacular turnarounds in recent decades – first from Traian Băsescu, then Klaus Iohannis – this time, a much greater feat is needed.

So voters have their work cut out for them. But even more so do the political parties, because it has been proven that those in power did not learn their lesson: despite the many promises made following the rude awakening after last year's elections, there was no renewal, no path to internal reform, no response to the voice of the people. The only way to put a stop to the triumph of the far right is by presenting a realistic alternative to the golden yellow AUR frenzy that is equivalent to chaos.

korábban írtuk

Románia a vesztébe rohan, de még visszafordulhat

Bár a kellemetlen meglepetés több tekintetben is benne volt a pakliban, nem túlzás sokknak nevezni a romániai államfőválasztás vasárnap rendezett első fordulójának eredményét.