But where should Romania stand?

Then, tech billionaire Elon Musk, the head of the newly-established DOGE, tasked with making US government spending more efficient, took Bucharest to task and scrubbed the floor with justice officials over the criminal case against Călin Georgescu. The latest bombshell is that, contrary to initial plans, the US visa waiver for Romanian citizens will not come into effect at the end of March. Although they are attempting to justify this with the Trump administration’s general change in strategy towards migration, it is hard not to assume that there could be a connection between the two cases.

Especially in light of the fact that last weekend the US embassy in Bucharest also made sure to send their message loud and clear: first, they shared Vance’s critical words without any particular comment or justification, and then they warned of sanctions against illegal entry to the USA. This was followed by a Fox News report on the increase in the number of Romanian border violators arriving from Canada on the very day the visa waiver was postponed.

To understand why the torrent of criticism from Washington against the Romanian authorities caused such a shock in Bucharest, it is worth recalling the Romanian perception of security. According to this, Bucharest regularly seeks the favor of the biggest power with the biggest influence in the region and tries to serve its needs without critique – and if it sees that the given „boss” begins to waver, it immediately switches sides to the power that seems to be the new deciding factor in the region for the coming period. Now a situation has arisen where it seems that Romania has reached a crossroads and must decide where to take a stand in the conflict that seems to be developing between the United States and the majority of European leaders.

Romanian politicians and other public figures are partly responsible for the deterioration of relations with Washington, as they apparently did not take the time to provide the USA with a detailed explanation of why the election had to be annulled. On the other hand, it could also be that the new administration is no longer that interested in what happened and why, and that the criticisms of Bucharest are part of a larger strategy: the Trump administration assessing that it will not be able to cooperate as closely as it would like with traditional European parties.

This can be attributed to both ideological and personal reasons. It is worth remembering that from the beginning of his first term, the left-liberal side belittled Trump whenever it had the chance, and over time, the former conservative side, which now essentially follows the same liberal ideology, also joined in. All this continued and even intensified after Trump's election defeat. And Trump and his staff have not forgotten this. For this reason, it seems that they are trying, on the one hand, to establish and strengthen closer ties with European right-wing parties that are not in the EPP, and, on the other hand, to ensure that their new partners perform as well as possible in the elections. (This is an old tradition – just ask Cubans, Chileans, and citizens of many other countries around the world about what it's like when the United States intervenes to help its own people come to power. But the operation carried out during the Biden administration against the legally elected Hungarian government is not all that different from this practice.)

And it may also be related to the fact that Vance and Musk can't help but chide the Romanian authorities, since they mowed down a candidate who, in principle, represents the sovereignist right, as opposed to mainstream politics. Of course, we know very well that this has little to do with reality, as he is a far-right, neo-fascist, conspiracy theorist. However, Washington hardly cares what kind of leader is at the helm of a distant vassal state, as long as American interests are served in every way, and despite the Romanian press riding Georgescu’s pro-Russian rhetoric, he has spoken about closer cooperation with the United States on several occasions. Moreover, it is difficult to deny that the Romanian authorities invalidated the presidential election using methods worthy of the Third World, and to this day they are still obliged to make the detailed and precise reasoning public, continuing to seriously violate the right of citizens to get an accurate picture of the operation of state institutions and the background to their decisions.

Based on all this, the embassy's warnings, the news about Romanian border violators, and the postponement of visa-free travel can be interpreted as a not-so-discreet warning that the authorities should not even consider interfering in the course of the elections by any means – if, for example, voters decide at the polls that George Simion should be the next president, then this must be accepted. Although it is a fact that this would not be a very favorable scenario for us Hungarians.

(Which is not completely unfounded, but this incident is not exactly proof of that). In any event, this week's leaked Signal group chat conversation about the strike against the Houthis in Yemen also perfectly indicates how the current American administration views Europe. Vice President Vance's indignation that Washington is once again the one to pull the Europeans out of the fray, and Defense Secretary Hegseth's counterclaim that it is pitiful that Europeans are enjoying American security guarantees as freeloaders, may seem shocking, but unfortunately it is difficult to refute.

Although some suggest that the leak may have been intentional, it is rather unlikely. However, it is certainly useful for European officials to finally see clearly: the Trump administration genuinely believes that the countries of the old continent have become unacceptably comfortable and have taken the American protective umbrella so much for granted that they believed they could indefinitely postpone the development of their own defense capabilities. It seems that Romanian officials have already made the switch and realized that they are not equals with Washington as neither an adversary nor partner, but they cannot find effective protection in Western Europe either.

This is probably why Acting President Ilie Bolojan, in an almost apologetic interview, partially confirmed the US Vice President's criticism of Romanian democracy. And Prime Minister Ciolacu also took a jab at the coalition partner liberals and made a gesture to Washington when, following the postponement of the visa waiver, he said that Foreign Minister Emil Hurezeanu is an old-fashioned diplomat who can find common ground with Europeans – meaning the liberals and the populist, former conservative, mainstream that has joined them – but not with Trump and his circle.

For instance, Romania voted for the proposal to postpone the effort to end the war in Ukraine without a word of opposition, just as it is participating in the negotiations on further military support for Ukraine. True, according to Acting President Ilie Bolojan, with the stipulation that Romania will not send soldiers to Ukraine, it will only serve as a logistical hub for the supplies and troops to be sent there. (In this regard, we would like to draw his and his staff's attention to the fact that this does not make Romania any less a party to a potential conflict, in fact… A logistical hub is no less valuable a target for the enemy force than the units fighting on the front line. In fact, it may even be more valuable, since the latter can be more easily crushed by eliminating supply hubs and routes.)

At the same time, it seems that they are more cautious with Macron's French saber-rattling, as is also indicated by the fact that Romania does not want to extend the French nuclear shield. After all, Bucharest is most likely aware that back in the Cold War, the so-called MAD (literally meaning crazy, but actually Mutually Assured Destruction) was the balance and the guarantee that no nuclear power would dare to take the risk of launching a first strike. However, when the French side has 290 nuclear warheads and the Russian side has 5,800, you would have to be delusional to not realize that this does not exactly signify parity, even if only a third of Russian warheads can actually be deployed…

So for now, Bucharest is waiting and trying to maintain the best possible relationship with both sides. Then, over time, it will be decided whether the foundations of a new American-European system of relations will be laid, in which economic and military cooperation remain strong, but Europe takes on a greater share of its own defense.

What is certain is that the conditions will not be set on this side of the ocean for the time being. And in this case, it doesn't hurt to be on good terms with the person who dictates the terms.

korábban írtuk

De hova álljanak a románok?

A Donald Trump elnökválasztási győzelme nyomán átalakulóban levő világrend kapcsán sokan érezhetik úgy, hogy kicsúszik a lábuk alól a talaj – de kevés ország érezheti annyira intenzíven, mint Románia.