Romania Is Racing Toward Ruin — But It Can Still Turn Back

The surprise was not that George Simion – the far-right nationalist leader – won the rerun of last year’s annulled election. That was anticipated. What stunned observers was the sheer scale and momentum of his victory, which demands both a sober analysis of Romania’s political psychology and a reflection on the deeper causes behind this upheaval.

Simion, head of the Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR), outperformed all predictions. He not only absorbed the supporters of the disqualified far-right sovereigntist candidate Călin Georgescu but also secured an astounding 3.8 million votes—more than he and his mentor combined in November’s election.

He claimed first place in 35 of Romania’s 41 counties and captured over 60 percent of the nearly one million votes cast abroad.

Why This Political Earthquake?

The roots of this political tsunami run deep. For decades, a majority of Romanians have believed the country is heading in the wrong direction. The political class, many feel, has proven incapable of establishing true democracy, the rule of law, or meaningful prosperity.

This chronic disillusionment explains the mass emigration of millions since communism’s fall. It also explains the collapse of public trust in pro-European parties, which has only worsened since December’s austerity measures aimed at narrowing the budget deficit. The government, led by Marcel Ciolacu, has so far failed to halt the deficit’s growth, and further unpopular tax hikes are looming.

Simion’s surge also reflects anger over last year’s annulled election. Authorities failed to convincingly explain the annulment, reinforcing the widespread belief that regardless of whom people vote for, „the system” manipulates the outcome.

The Collapse of the Establishment

Crin Antonescu – a former political heavyweight brought out of retirement to lead the mainstream coalition – was soundly rejected. Voters saw the 65-year-old as a relic of the political establishment that, with only brief interruptions, has ruled Romania since 1989. They doubted his ability to reform or renew the country.

The government’s standing took another hit just two days before the election, when U.S. authorities abruptly excluded Romania from the visa-free travel program—a humiliating reversal that only deepened voter resentment.

Simion: A Threat to Romania’s Democracy and Stability

Simion’s potential presidency would not merely represent a change in leadership. It would risk isolating Romania internationally and destabilizing its economy and democratic institutions.

His record is alarming. Years ago, as a football hooligan leader, he participated in violent riots. As an activist, he openly campaigned for the unification of Romania and Moldova—a stance that got him banned from both Moldova and Ukraine. Former Moldovan Defense Minister Anatol Șalaru even claims Simion held meetings with Russian FSB agents in Chișinău. Curiously, Simion was spotted in Vienna the day after the election—a detail that raises further questions.

Simion’s aggressive, confrontational style has become infamous in Romanian politics. He led the desecration of a Hungarian military cemetery in Úzvölgy, threatened political opponents—including an infamous incident in Parliament where he nearly assaulted the former energy minister and threatened to rape a fellow MP, Diana Șoșoacă.

His economic platform is equally dangerous. Simion advocates a radical economic nationalism, vowing to renationalize many of the state enterprises privatized over the past 35 years, particularly in the energy sector, including OMV Petrom, Romania’s largest commercial company. Such policies have already spooked foreign investors. Should he follow through, Romania’s credit rating would plummet into junk territory, borrowing costs would skyrocket, and the country would be hurtled toward insolvency and brutal austerity.

Though Simion boasts of cultivating ties with figures in the Trump movement, his election would likely strain, not strengthen, Romania’s strategic alliances with both the United States and the European Union. The worst-case scenario: his party, AUR, could become the dominant political force. In a word–disaster.

An Unexpected Challenger: Nicușor Dan

The first round’s biggest surprise was the emergence of Bucharest’s mayor, Nicușor Dan, as Simion’s challenger in the runoff. Despite lacking major party support, Dan edged out Crin Antonescu, even though Antonescu had the backing of a well-oiled party machine. Dan, an outspoken critic of the political establishment and the ruling coalition, now faces a daunting battle against Simion, who commands roughly twice as much support.

While many analysts believe that a majority of Romanian voters remain pro-European and that the far-right cannot exceed 40 percent of the vote, Dan faces formidable challenges. He must swiftly win over voters from parties he has long opposed, particularly supporters of the ruling Social Democrats (PSD). Yet many PSD voters either oppose Dan outright or are likely to either vote for Simion or abstain altogether. Dan also faces skepticism from liberals.

PSD’s Dangerous Gamble

The PSD’s recent moves reflect both tactical calculation and dangerous short-sightedness. By withdrawing Prime Minister Ciolacu and exiting the coalition, the PSD has distanced itself from the failing government. But by refusing to endorse Dan—the only viable democratic alternative—it has effectively abdicated responsibility.

This strategy leaves open the possibility of a future PSD-AUR alliance if Simion wins, which would have been unthinkable until recently.

The Road to May 18

To win the runoff, Dan must negotiate with leaders of the disintegrating mainstream coalition and mobilize more than two million additional voters—an enormous undertaking. Even that might not be enough, as Simion is likely to grow his base further.

Romanian politics has witnessed remarkable electoral turnarounds before, from Traian Băsescu’s comeback to Klaus Iohannis’s rise. But Dan’s task will require an even greater political feat. His mission is not impossible. If he can persuade broad swaths of the electorate that Simion’s victory would not merely change policy but radically alter Romania’s trajectory—undermining its foreign policy, judicial independence, and economic stability—he still has a chance.

The Choice: Chaos or Renewal

The challenge ahead is not only for Dan or the voters but for the entire political establishment. Despite last year’s electoral shock, Romania’s mainstream parties failed to reform or heed the public’s call for change. If they do not present a credible, realistic alternative to the far-right’s golden-yellow populist surge, Romania risks descending into chaos.

The country can still turn back from the brink. But time is running out.

Editor-in-Chief, Krónika

korábban írtuk

Románia a vesztébe rohan, de még visszafordulhat

Bár a kellemetlen meglepetés több tekintetben is benne volt a pakliban, nem túlzás sokknak nevezni a romániai államfőválasztás vasárnap rendezett első fordulójának eredményét.