Fotó: Haáz Vince
Though the noise of the upcoming parliamentary and presidential election campaigns diverts attention from critical issues, voters should approach the November-December elections — and, of course, Christmas — aware that tough times are ahead for Romania in 2025. Let’s not be overly pessimistic, but it is fair to say that the upcoming year promises to be more challenging than this one, regardless of who comes to power after the legislative contest.
2025. február 12., 18:162025. február 12., 18:16
For months, economic analysts, experts, and economists — anyone who isn’t interpreting the situation according to their political priorities — have been warning the country about the inevitability of austerity measures. Forecasts suggest that Romania's budget deficit could exceed 8% this year (despite the government's initial projection of 5% of GDP for 2024), and Brussels has yet to approve a long-term plan for Romania to reduce the deficit to 3% by 2031. Slowing economic growth, persistent inflation hovering around 5%, the budget deficit, the trade balance deficit, and increasing national debt are rendering the budget unsustainable.
The business sector echoes similar concerns, with small- and medium-sized enterprises pointing to inflation as their most pressing challenge second only to unfair competition. Unsurprisingly, most experts predict that the earliest Romania will be able to join the Eurozone will be 11 years from now. Skepticism about government commitments is widespread among private sector representatives and employers.
Recently, Dan Bucșa, Chief Economist for Central Europe at UniCredit Bank, caused a stir by accusing Bucharest politicians — in particular the Prime Minister — of "lying" when they claim that there will be no tax increases in 2025 for Romanians. Bucșa asserts that the Romanian government has already begun preparatory discussions with international financial institutions about deficit-reducing measures which include tax and VAT hikes.
Given Romania's current economic and financial outlook, austerity measures are inevitable next year. While government communication may tactfully label these measures as „fiscal consolidation”, „tax and budget rationalization”, or „public expenditure reform”, the essence remains: hard times are coming for the population. Even Mugur Isărescu, the long-serving Governor of the National Bank of Romania, has metaphorically „prescribed” a necessary fasting period and a „healthy diet” for the country.
Ciolacu, a member and leader of the Social Democratic Party (PSD), can make such promises with confidence, knowing that he is unlikely to remain Prime Minister come January. With a strong chance of winning the upcoming presidential election and thereby moving into the Cotroceni Palace, he would have the opportunity to shift all responsibility for future measures onto the next prime minister and government. Alternatively, if he loses the presidency, he will likely also lose the party leadership, as has happened with previous PSD leaders like Adrian Năstase, Mircea Geoană, Victor Ponta, and Viorica Dăncilă.
Against this less-than-rosy backdrop, the Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (RMDSZ) is striving to return to power. Since being pushed into the opposition in June 2023, RMDSZ leaders have made no secret of their goal to regain a governing position after a year and a half of “abstinence.” It goes without saying that joining the governing coalition provides any political party with advantages, including access to budgetary resources that can benefit its community and supporters.
However, it is difficult to determine whether governing would bring more positives than negatives. The critical question is whether RMDSZ should align itself with a Bucharest administration forced to implement unpopular measures such as VAT and tax increases or public sector downsizing — steps similar to those taken by Emil Boc's government in 2010, which tarnished the RMDSZ's reputation at the time.
Granted, this issue can also be viewed from another perspective: a party should not shy away from responsibility in tough times and must accept accountability for necessary but unpopular decisions. Perhaps, if RMDSZ can leverage its position to expand minority rights for the Hungarian community in Romania, this could be considered a worthwhile trade-off. However, the extent of the RMDSZ's influence and bargaining power in a future coalition remains uncertain, especially if Ilie Bolojan, with whom RMDSZ has had a particularly strained relationship (while he was the mayor of Oradea and as representative of Bihor county), becomes Prime Minister.
To find answers to these questions, good sense is indispensable.
Bár a közelgő parlamenti és államfőválasztás kampányának zaja eltereli a figyelmet számos lényeges elemről, a választópolgároknak ajánlott azzal a tudattal készülniük a novemberi-decemberi szavazásra, hogy jövőre nehéz idők köszöntenek be Romániában.
Iratkozzon fel hírlevelünkre, hogy elsőként értesüljön a hírekről!
For over a decade, Imre Vass, the mayor of Makfalva in Mureș (Maros) County, has been battling Romanian nationalist attacks in a municipality where the proportion of the Romanian population is very small.
It’s long been common knowledge at this point that property prices in Cluj-Napoca are the highest in the country, rivaling those in major Western European cities.
„Although it was anticipated that this year’s ‘super-election year’ would witness unprecedented spending due to continuous campaign giveaways, the Bucharest government has spent even more than expected. As a result, the budget deficit, which was high to begin with, is expected to rise to around 8%,” said Csaba Bálint, a returning member of the Board of Directors of the National Bank of Romania (BNR), in an interview with Krónika.
We hope that the leaders of RMDSZ (Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania) will be gracious enough to send a bouquet of flowers and a box of chocolates to Elena Lasconi.
Látogatottsági adatok
szóljon hozzá!